Reel Talk: Fool-proof Oscar predictions

Reel+Talk%3A+Fool-proof+Oscar+predictions

Jillian Leiby, JagWire opinions editor

The Oscars are on Sunday, and, despite their never-ending ability to let me down, I still love to watch it. This year’s ceremony will be a little more interesting, due to the #OscarsSoWhite controversy and the amount of categories that remain up in the air. Therefore, my predicting abilities may be a little off this time, but trust me — each category has an educated guess. Plus, a nominee that I really want to win.

Best picture:

“The Big Short”

“Bridge of Spies”

“Brooklyn”

“Mad Max: Fury Road”

“The Martian”

“The Revenant”

“Room”

“Spotlight”

Who should win: “Mad Max: Fury Road”

Who will win: “Spotlight,” “The Big Short” or “The Revenant”

I know that picking three movies is a bit of a cop-out, but I honestly don’t think the Academy voters know which movie will win. Up until the Golden Globes, “The Revenant” was not even in the top five, but it has consistently been honored — most notably by the Directors Guild of America awards — despite everyone agreeing it was not Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s best feature. Still, the Producers Guild of America awarded “The Big Short” as the best feature film, while the Screen Actors Guild awarded “Spotlight” with best ensemble. The three films are great choices, but if they split votes, I think “Mad Max: Fury Road” is the next choice. And I’ll be pulling for that film until the day I die.  

Best actor in a leading role:

Bryan Cranston, “Trumbo”

Matt Damon, “The Martian”

Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant”

Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobs”

Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girl”

Who will win: Leonardo DiCaprio

Who should win: Leonardo DiCaprio (but really Michael Fassbender)

Believe it or not, I had a dream sometime this week that Leonardo DiCaprio did not win the Oscar. Instead, Tom Hanks won it. (I’m assuming for “Bridge of Spies,” but I’m not even sure.) Considering Hanks isn’t even nominated, I can assume that my dream wasn’t a premonition. DiCaprio is due an Oscar after his illustrious body of work, and he was good in “The Revenant.” He should win the Oscar, but I personally enjoyed Fassbender’s transformative role better. If DiCaprio doesn’t win, expect to hear about it for months.

Best actress in a leading role:

Cate Blanchett, “Carol”

Brie Larson, “Room”

Jennifer Lawrence, “Joy”

Charlotte Rampling, “45 Years”

Saoirse Ronan, “Brooklyn”

Who will win: Brie Larson

Who should win: Brie Larson

Who should not win: Jennifer Lawrence

This category is also a forgone conclusion, but I truly think that Larson deserves it for her heartbreaking performance in “Room.” While Ronan was fantastic in “Brooklyn,” Larson also has previous awards on her side, having won most of the best actress categories in the award shows leading up to the Oscars. Lawrence better not pull an upset, though. I’m still angry she was even nominated for such an average movie.  

Best actor in a supporting role:

Christian Bale, “The Big Short”

Tom Hardy, “The Revenant”

Mark Ruffalo, “Spotlight”

Mark Rylance, “Bridge of Spies”

Sylvester Stallone, “Creed”

Who will win: Sylvester Stallone

Who should win: None of them

Honestly, looking at this category, I can’t help thinking that these actors were not the best part (or even the better part) of their respective films. Rylance was alright, but I didn’t leave the theater thinking that his performance in “Bridge of Spies” was more of a standout than Tom Hanks. I don’t enjoy Stallone as an actor, and even his emotional standout scenes in “Creed” were due to writing, not acting. I see the academy giving it to him, however, if not to makeup for a so-called snub in the ‘70s for “Rocky.” Don’t let his win overshadow the academy’s complete disrespect for “Creed” as an overall film, though.   

Best actress in a supporting role:

Jennifer Jason Leigh, “The Hateful Eight”

Rooney Mara, “Carol”

Rachel McAdams, “Spotlight”

Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl”

Kate Winslet, “Steve Jobs”

Who who will win: Alicia Vikander (or Kate Winslet)

Who should win: Kate Winslet (or Alicia Vikander)

The award season has been brewing over the two supporting categories; both of them looked very different until the awards season actually started. I’ve been pulling for Winslet since the beginning: Her mastery of the fast-paced dialogue in “Steve Jobs” is fantastic, and her dynamic with Fassbender is one of the best part of the film. Still, Vikander has had a great year, but she is nominated for the wrong movie. “The Danish Girl” was a terrible movie, and, despite her being the best part of it, she should have been nominated for “Ex Machina.” The Oscars tend to award body of work over performance (see: DiCaprio), and Winslet already has an Oscar from 2008, so Vikander will probably take it.

I’m actually looking forward to Sunday, and I’ll be sure to post my live tweets next week. Before then, check out this Rolling Stone article ranking the best actress Oscar winners since 2000 that, while very well-written, is completely wrong.

(Visited 20 times, 1 visits today)